It’s Complicated

May 4, 2025

By Stephen Stofka

This is part of a series on persistent problems. The conversations are voiced by Abel, a Wilsonian with a faith that government can ameliorate social and economic injustices to improve society’s welfare, and Cain, who believes that individual autonomy, the free market and the price system promote the greatest good.

Cain said, “A little thing I appreciate about this place is they serve melted butter, not frozen butter packets.”

Abel nodded. “A little extra time and care.”

Cain asked, “You need to wash up before you eat?”

Abel turned his right hand over. “Oh, that’s just dirt under my fingernails. Getting the flower beds ready and weeding. What about you? Anything interesting this week?”

Cain spread a small amount of butter on his waffle. “We were talking about common problems like homelessness, and I thought we could talk about education this week. K-12, primarily.”

Abel put his coffee cup down. “Oops. That reminds me. Last week I mentioned that the Feds had helped fund the capital portion of Denver’s homeless program. This past week the city council learned that FEMA has canceled a $32 million grant because Denver is a sanctuary city (Source). The agency had already received $8 million of that grant.”

Cain frowned. “Can the Feds take the money back?”

Abel shook his head. “I don’t know. I don’t think the City Council knows. There’s no rules. The Trump administration is just doing stuff. Anyway, education is even more complicated than homelessness. What got you interested in education this week?”

Cain sighed. “An argument with my daughter.”

Abel frowned. “She teaches sixth grade, right?”

Cain replied, “Fifth. She says that kids are still kids at that age. Then they turn into discipline problems.”

Abel smiled. “The stages of child development. The terrible twos, the argumentative fours and then middle school.”

Cain laughed. “Then teenager. I used to think, ‘Was I like this when I was growing up?’ It gave me a new appreciation for my parents.”

Abel said, “So, go on. What was the argument about?”

Cain pursed his lips. “Oh, we got into one of those equity, equality discussions. I should know better. I said that a kid who can barely read is not going to do as well in life. Society should accept that and devote more of their resources to the more gifted kids. They are the ones who will do the most for society.”

Abel nodded. “A Pareto improvement in the long run. It would benefit the more gifted without materially harming outcomes for those with learning disabilities (Source).”

Cain replied, “I actually called it that. She said that such a shift in resources would harm struggling students. I said that the current condition already harms the more gifted and her perspective was too myopic. I might have characterized her position as Marxist.”

Abel gave a skeptical look as he lifted his coffee cup. “Rawlsian, maybe. The Difference Principle. The whole idea that we should reduce inequality so that the least of us benefit the most (Source). But, Marxist?”

Cain sighed. “Not my best moment. Anyway, she accused me of being uncharitable and I took offense. After helping her out so many times, she calls me uncharitable?”

Abel frowned. “Sorry that happened. I hate when arguments turn from an exploration of different claims to throwing word darts at each other.”

Cain raised his eyebrows. “Then she said I didn’t know what I was talking about. All opinion and little evidence.”

Abel winced. “Ouch. This is a topic you two should not discuss.”

Cain smiled. “Usually we don’t and this is why. Anyway, she started describing some education metrics that, I’ll admit, I was unfamiliar with. We didn’t have all this stuff when she was a kid in school. She mentioned all the pressure that teachers are under, and I didn’t appreciate her contribution or her sacrifice.”

Abel interrupted, “She took it personal. You were a stand-in for society as a whole.”

Cain bit his lip. “Looking back, yeah, I guess you’re right. I reassured her that I respected her choice of career and apologized for hurting her feelings.”

Abel clapped softly. “Smart dad.”

Cain smirked. “I’m either getting soft or wiser in my old age. Anyway, I went to look up some data.”

Abel leaned forward. “So her evidence comment had some effect on you. What are some of these new metrics?”

Cain said, “My daughter mentioned an iReady score so I watched a video on iReady tests (Source). Their scores indicate whether a child is performing at or below grade level. I think that would be easier for parents to understand than a percentile rank. When they summarize an entire school district, educators, politicians and parents can get a simple but clear picture of academic progress across several grades (Example). In the spring of 2024, only a quarter of students in the Rochester School District were performing at or above grade level. A third were three or more grades behind (Source).”

Abel frowned. “Oomph. I’ll bet that stirs up a lot of political disagreements and accusations.”

Cain nodded. “You bet. They are spending like $30,000 per student (Source), but that’s below the state average of $36,000 (Source). New York has some of the highest spending in the nation.”

Abel shrugged. “Childcare alone can run $20,000. We expect a lot more from schools. What’s the poverty level in Rochester? Do you know?”

Cain stared at his coffee cup as though it held the answer. “It was about 25% (Source). Yeah, a huge problem. That city is a cautionary tale in the benefits of economic diversification.”

Abel asked, “What got you interested in Rochester?”

Cain smiled. “I was looking up information on test scores and somehow wound up reading some article about Rochester. I’ve been through there a few times. It’s just north of the Finger Lakes in New York State. Beautiful in the spring. Brutal in the winter because it’s on Lake Ontario.”

Abel said, “I thought it was a booming city in the 1950s. Wasn’t Eastman Kodak headquartered there?”

Cain raised his eyebrows. “Yeah, that whole corridor along I-90 was booming in the post-war period. Kodak was a big employer. So was Xerox, the copier company. Bausch and Lomb, the eyeglass manufacturer. Less than two hours away to the east was Syracuse, another prosperous town at that time. General Electric had a plant there. So did Carrier, the air conditioner company. To the west was Buffalo. Bethlehem Steel was near there and some other manufacturers as well.”

Abel replied, “So this was the industrial Promised Land that Trump talks about. Like Moses, he will lead the MAGA tribe to that Golden Age.”

Cain smiled. “Yeah. There were similar industrial corridors like that in other states. Relatively high unionization rates. During that time, more than a third of workers in New York State were unionized. Workers earned middle-class incomes.”

Abel interrupted, “Mostly white?”

Cain’s eyes widened. “Yeah, almost 100% until the late 1950s (Source). As the workforce expanded, blacks moved to the area to take lower skilled jobs (Source).”

Abel interrupted again, “Companies were importing workers to cut costs. Eventually, those companies would export those jobs to other countries. So, what’s the unionization rate now?”

Cain put his coffee cup down. “New York still has a relatively high unionization rate, but it’s now just under 25%. In Rochester, it’s half that rate (Source).”

Abel asked, “A lot of homeless, I imagine.”

Cain nodded. “After the pandemic moratoriums on evictions ended, the number of unsheltered homeless almost doubled in Rochester (Source). I was surprised to find that Oregon and New York State have the highest rates of homelessness in the country, but New York finds shelter for most of their homeless. Oregon doesn’t (Source).”

Abel frowned. “That surprises me. I think of Oregon as a rather progressive state. They have voted for the Democratic candidate in past presidential elections.”

Cain raised his eyebrows. “California and Oregon have higher rates of unsheltered homeless than some warm southern states like Florida, Alabama and Georgia (Source).”

 Abel looked puzzled. “We started talking about problems in education, which took us to issues with poverty and now we are at the homeless problem that we discussed the past few weeks. In 2002, Stephen Wolfram published a book called ‘A New Kind of Science.’ In it he showed how a simple rule could produce complex visual patterns or a bland uniformity of color.”

Cain interrupted, “And this is leading to…?”

Abel gave a short laugh. “I’m thinking out loud. So, we recognize a problem in education, for instance. It’s related to poverty. That’s related to an industrial downturn over several decades. That’s related to too much reliance on related industries, you said. Maybe that’s related to Rochester’s role in industrial production during World War 2.  I think we long to discover that one simple rule that produced such a complex set of problems. Someone like Trump comes along and claims to know the rule and how to fix it. ‘Vote for me,’ they say. People do.”

Cain smiled. “You know I like simple rules.”

Abel grinned. “I know you do. Republican voters in general like simple answers. Tax cuts, for instance. Republican politicians promise, ‘Tax cuts will increase investment and boost jobs, and the benefits will trickle down to the larger population.’ In theory, it sounds plausible. We’ve had tax cuts in 2001, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2012 and 2017. There’s no evidence that they increased investment and boosted job growth.”

Cain argued, “Democrats are guilty of the same simplistic thinking. They say, ‘give government more money by taxing the rich. Government experts will fix it.’ Do those experts fix it? No. Experts are good at research and crafting a lot of rules. Not so good at implementing solutions.”

Abel nodded. “Proves my point. We like to believe in simple rules. Although, when given a simple rule, we don’t like to follow it. Jesus had just two rules. ‘Love thy neighbor as thyself’ was the second.”

Cain smirked. “That’s a simple rule to state, and a deceptively hard rule to follow. We could spend hours on the contradictions that such a rule generates.”

Abel snapped his fingers. “Eureka! Let’s call it ‘Cain’s Theorem.’ Simple rules can generate complex contradictions.”

Cain laughed. “When simple rules involve public policy. Maybe that’s what Wolfram’s complex visual patterns described. An intricate set of contradictions.”

Abel replied, “That’s good. Getting back to education, I think one of the problems is that the task of public education has gradually expanded. Their stated role is to educate our kids, but they are also babysitters. They provide at least some structured time and a place for kids to develop companionship.”

Cain interrupted, “For some kids, school is a food pantry and a security blanket. Special needs kids might need medical assistance.”

Abel nodded. “Good point. Then we fault the schools when the kids get low test scores. We give the schools all these tasks but measure only the test scores.”

Cain smirked. “What, like a babysitter score?”

Abel replied, “Well they could measure the diameter of each kid’s arm to test for malnutrition (Source). What about gains in productivity? While the school is babysitting children, the parents are more productive. That benefits society but who counts that?”

Cain frowned. “Hard to measure, but ok, I’ll give you that. So, your point is that school scores should reflect all the roles that society imposes on them? What, a composite score?”

Abel nodded. “Yeah, call it an iSchool score like that iReady score for students that you talked about.”

Cain shook his head. “Schools in middle-class and higher income neighborhoods would score well on those other measures with little effort. Schools in low-income districts would struggle.”

Abel argued, “But at least their efforts would be recognized.”

Cain shrugged. “What benefit is a good nutrition score if that doesn’t lead to higher test scores? The schools may have multiple responsibilities, but their main purpose is education.”

Abel frowned. “I don’t like the way the system treats kids like machines. Inputs and outputs.”

Cain replied, “Incentives are the key.”

Abel sighed. “Your answer to everything.”

Cain laughed. “Gimme a break. Look, test scores are important to some kids. Others, not so much. Social media apps like TikTok have been very successful at getting kids to spend a lot of time on their phones.”

Abel scoffed. “That’s not learning like school.”

Cain argued, “It’s engagement. Learning is an outcome of engagement. Look at those computer games where kids work their butts off to acquire some magical power token in the game.”

Abel agreed, “Kids are magical thinkers. What are you suggesting? There are no magical tokens in real life.”

Cain shook his head. “Sure, there are. Kids don’t recognize them. Language and math skills. Develop their memory, visualization and analytical skills. Hand-eye coordination. Manual skills. We give these kids numerical scores for their accomplishments, maybe a trophy or two. That’s not enough incentive for many students. They cry out for recognition and status.”

Abel said, “I worked with a guy who grew up in Detroit. A lot of kids planned on working the assembly line in an auto plant. School accomplishments weren’t all that important.”

Cain nodded. “Same thing in a mining town or any town where a single industry dominates the local economy. Like in West Virginia, dad works in a mine. The sons follow in his footsteps. Not much else to do in an economy like that. No policy solution can fit every circumstance.”

Abel replied, “Minority kids can get discouraged if they think that being a minority is a handicap in the job market. Resentment will interfere with any motivation they have to develop job skills. How many black students in Rochester public schools? Do you know?”

Cain replied, “Almost half. Less than 10% of students are white (Source).”

Abel whistled softly. “White flight. Another complication. Remember all the controversy in the 1970s over busing students to integrate schools after the Supreme Court decision? (Source)”

Cain nodded. “Yeah, and that reduces property values and property tax collections. That makes Rochester dependent on the state for a lot of it’s school funding (Source).”

Abel replied, “Reinforces my point. A simple solution like ‘incentives’ won’t work. Elements of the problem are interwoven throughout the society and the economy. As far as incentives go, what matters to kids changes as they grow up. That’s a relatively short time. We try to teach them what’s important when they become adults.”

Cain sighed. “In twenty years, what’s important in the job market can change. Kids need to be adaptable.”

Abel interrupted, “That supports my argument that school is about more than job skills. Developing values, a sense of history and past conflicts and learning about the society that kids were born into. I’ll grant you, these are not all marketable skills, but they help children become more complete human beings.”

Cain asked, “Is that the role of schools? Too many kids graduate high school and are little more than functional readers. How is a kid going to fully develop if they can barely read?”

Abel argued, “The answer is not to force all the marginal students on public schools, and allow charter schools to discourage children with learning disabilities. Anyway, how do these new metrics help students?”

Cain replied, “They indicate where the student is weak, particularly in math and reading skills. That helps the parents and student focus on those key areas. Teachers can form groups within a classroom, matching students who have similar areas that they need to focus on.”

Abel nodded. “A lot more work for the teachers. That’s what your daughter was talking about.”

Cain sighed. “Yeah. More work for the same pay.”

Abel asked, “How does a card carrying libertarian have a daughter teaching public school?”

Cain smirked. “Classical liberal, not libertarian. Don’t ask me. She has wanted to be a teacher since she was eight, I think. She would make tests for her mother and me.”

Abel gave a silent whistle. “She made you take tests?”

Cain laughed. “Yep. We had to keep our eyes on our own test paper. Very serious. I’ve come to believe that teaching is a passion. It’s like people who have to play music. It’s who they are.”

Abel nodded. “For a lot of musicians and teachers, it’s certainly not about the money. Have you suggested she teach at a charter school?”

Cain replied, “I did. She said she couldn’t afford to. A few years ago, teachers at charter schools in Denver were making about 60% of what public school teachers make (Source). I was shocked to learn that the average salary of about $44,000 is a little bit more than what a retail clerk earns (Source).”

Abel frowned. “That’s for nine or ten months of work, though.”

Cain’s jaw tightened. “My daughter informed me in a firm tone of voice that a lot of teachers squeeze a full year’s time working during that period.”

Abel raised his eyebrows. “School boards respond to shifts in cultural values, then impose those burdens on teachers. Why would a teacher work for that kind of money? It doesn’t exactly fit your favorite theory about how prices allocate resources.”

Cain replied, “Like I said, it’s a passion. But I still think that prices allocate resources. Just because there are black holes in space, we don’t say that the theory of gravity is wrong. There are limits to any theory.”

Abel set his fork down. “Is there a big move to charter schools in Rochester? An effort to cut costs?”

Cain replied, “More than a third of students in Rochester are in charter schools already (Source). For New York State as a whole, less than 10% of students are in charter school (Source). In Colorado, it’s 15% (Source).”

Abel frowned. “I thought the charter school movement was primarily about autonomy. It’s as much about costs.”

Cain looked up at the clock above Abel’s head. “I’m a firm believer in adaptability, a variety of solutions. That’s what the private marketplace is all about. Government institutions ignore varying circumstances when they impose a rigid standard on all communities.”

Abel interrupted, “There have to be some basic rules, civil rights and liberties that apply to all individuals. That spirit is at the heart of the Constitution.”

Cain nodded and stood, laying his napkin on the table. “You’re right, but I think the Feds should leave it to the states to craft solutions that protect those liberties. I grant you it’s not easy.”

Abel looked up. “I’ll talk to you next week.”

Cain turned to go. “Yeah. The time got away from me. I’ll see you next week.”

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Image by ChatGPT in response to the prompt “draw an image of a cat’s cradle.”

Delmont, M., & Theoharis, J. (2017). Introduction: Rethinking the Boston “Busing Crisis”. Journal of Urban History, 43(2), 191-203. https://doi.org/10.1177/0096144216688276