Hat Trick

December  9, 2018

by Steve Stofka

For the third time in six weeks, the SP500 fell below its 200-day moving average. This ten-month average of trading activity is a benchmark that indicates mid to long-term sentiment. It is a tug of war between the bulls and the bears, the buyers and sellers, over the developing trade war between the U.S. and China.

Technical market watchers call a crossing below the 200-day a Death Cross, a too dramatic name for something that may occur once or twice a year. Less frequently does it happen twice in a two-month period – a Double (Note #1). Rarely does it occur three times in such a short period of time – a Hat Trick (Note #2).

Hat Tricks signal strong investor worry about one or more structural conditions that will impact future earnings. The situation may resolve, and the market regain its upward trend. If the situation does not resolve, expect further price declines.

What does this mean for the casual investor? Contributions to an IRA at current prices will be priced as though you had dollar-cost averaged (DCA) each month of this year. As I showed in 2011 (Note #3), the DCA strategy has produced the highest long-term returns on the SP500. Look at the monthly bar on the chart below.

5de57-iracontribspy1993-2010sharesmonthly
History is the only guide we have to investor behavior. Previous Doubles occurred in 2015 and 2012. Previous Hat Tricks developed in 2011 and 2010, producing strong price corrections (Note #4) in response to budget duels between Republicans and President Obama (2011), and debt crises in the Eurozone (2010).

In hindsight, the Hat Trick that occurred during four weeks in August 2007 signaled that this was more than a well-deserved correction in the housing market. Don’t we wish we had the clarity of a rearview mirror? Another Hat Trick a few months later in November and December 2007 coincided with the beginning of the recession that lasted 20 months and chopped 60% off the price of the SP500. Another Hat Trick in May and June 2008 came just months before the onset of the Financial Crisis in September 2008.

A Hat Trick accompanied the peak of the housing market in 2006, and the peak of the dot-com market in 2000. It signaled the start and end of the 1990 recession.

Lesson: be cautious.

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Notes:
1. In technical analysis, this double bottom forms a ‘W’ and indicates a possible exhaustion of selling before a reversal to the upside.
2. Hat Trick is a name I made up for 3 dips below the 200-day in a two-month period.
3. I compared various IRA investing strategies in May 2011
4. Price declines in 2010 and 2011 barely escaped being classified as bear market corrections, defined as a closing price 20% below a previous closing high price.

Deepening Debt

December 2, 2018

by Steve Stofka

Each time the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the President tweets out his disapproval. This week Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that interest rates increases might be slowing and the Dow Jones average jumped up more than 2% in a few hours (Note #1). Presidents don’t like rising interest rates because they contribute to a slump in housing and car sales, two relatively small pieces of the economy that create ripples throughout a community’s economy. Trump’s strategy relies on strong growth.

The passage of the tax law last December reduced Federal tax revenues, which contributed to a rising deficit. The gamble was that the repatriation of corporate profits plus a reduced corporate tax rate would spur higher GDP growth which would offset the falling revenues. It hasn’t so far.

Let’s get away from dollars and use percentages. Economists track the annual budget deficit as a percent of GDP. I’ll call it DGDP. Let’s say a family made $50,000 last year and had to borrow $1000 because they spent more than they made, their DGDP would be $-1,000/$50,000 or -2%. In a growing economy, the DGDP rises, or gets less negative. It falls, or gets more negative, as the economy nears a recession.

DeficitPctGDP

A DGDP below the 60-year average of -2.5% indicates an unhealthy economy and, by this measure, the economy has not been healthy since 2007. The DGDP was the same in the last year of Bush’s presidency as it was in the last year of the Obama presidency. By 2014, it had risen above -3% and rose slightly again in 2015 but fell again the following year.

In 2016, the last year of the Obama presidency, the DGDP was -3.13%. In the first year of the Trump presidency it fell slightly to -3.4%. As I said earlier, the administration and Congressional Republicans hoped the tax law passed at the end of 2017 would spur enough GDP growth to offset declining corporate revenues. So far, that has not happened. The 2018 budget year just ended in September. Preliminary figures indicate that the deficit will be 3.9% of GDP this year (Note #2). Some economists project a DGDP near -5% in 2019.

Japan’s economy for the past two decades strongly suggests that an aging population weakens GDP growth. The U.S. economy must flourish against that demographic headwind. By December this year, Social Security (SS) benefits will surpass the $1 trillion mark, equal to or surpassing SS taxes collected (Note #3). For years, the excess in SS tax collections has lessened the amount that the Federal government had to borrow from the public. Each year, the government has left an I.O.U. in the SS trust fund. The total of those IOUs is almost $3 trillion.

Now the Federal government faces two challenges: interest on the ever-growing Federal debt and the government’s need to borrow more from the public to “pay back” those IOUs. The interest on the debt will soon overtake defense spending. Politicians could reduce cost of living increases in SS benefits by indexing benefits to the chained price index, a flexible measure of inflation that assumes that human beings alter their consumption in response to changing prices. Benefits are currently indexed to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) whose fixed basket of goods never changes. The CPI overstates inflation, but seniors are sure to lobby against any changes that would reduce cost of living increases. Politicians are reluctant to face angry seniors who might boot some of them out of office at the next election.

Trump has a better alternative than strategically lowering benefit increases for the swelling ranks of retiring Boomers – increase SS tax collections. The only way to do that is jobs, jobs, jobs. Jobs that are “on the books,” that take out SS taxes with each paycheck; not the jobs of the underground economy that flourish in immigrant communities. More jobs to draw in the half million discouraged workers who are sitting on the sidelines of the job market (Note #4).

Jobs, jobs and more jobs take care of a lot of budget problems. Campaign strategist James Carville stressed that point to Bill Clinton during the 1992 Presidential campaign. Higher interest rates hurt the construction, auto and retail industries, and blue collar small business service industries. All of these are more likely to reach out and hire marginal workers.

The headwinds are more than demographic. The economy has been stuck in low for a decade. In the eleven years since the 3rd quarter of 2007, just before the 2007-2009 recession, real GDP has averaged only 1.6% annual growth (Note #5). That is barely above population growth. Sectors that were strong, housing and auto sales, have slowed. Housing sales have declined for six months. Auto sales have declined for 18 months. Fed interest rate policy has been very supportive but that is slowly being withdrawn.

The DGDP is one more indicator that we should already be in a recession or approaching one. A recession will add to the demographic headwinds, increase the annual budget deficit and swell the accumulated federal debt. Job growth must counter job loss due to automation. Good policies are those likely to add jobs. Bad policies are those that thwart job growth. It doesn’t matter how well intentioned the policies are. Good or bad for job growth is all that matters in the next decade.

Here’s why. Another credit crisis is building. Low interest rates transferred billions of dollars in interest from the savings accounts of older people to businesses and government, who were able to go on a borrowing binge. Defaults and delinquency on business loans will probably be the source of our next crisis. After that is the coming pension crisis in several cities and states. Let’s hope those two don’t hit simultaneously.

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Notes:

  1. Within a day, interest rate futures that had priced in a 1/2% increase in the Fed Funds Rate during 2019 fell to just .3% for next year.
  2. Estimates of 2018 Fed deficit and GDP
  3. Social Security trustees’ summary report for fiscal year 2017.
  4. BLS series LNU05026645 discouraged workers. After ten long years, there are now as many discouraged workers as October 2008, just as the financial crisis sent the economy into shock. Within two years after the onset of the crisis, the number of discouraged workers had exploded 250%, reaching 1.25 million in October 2010.
  5. Real GDP: 3rd quarter 2007 – $15,667B. 3rd quarter 2018 – $18,672B. Constant 2012 dollars.