Small Business Lending

In a 5/5/09 WSJ article, Raymund Flandez focuses on the market for small business loans.

In February, 35% of new SBA loans of the most popular type were sold on the secondary market, up from 24% the previous month. Before the crisis in September 2008, 45% of these loans were sold on the secondary market.

At GovGex.com, where these loans are bundled and sold, bids for these loans have more than doubled since mid-March, when the Obama administration made a pledge to use $15B of taxpayer money to free up the secondary market in these loans. The government is guaranteeing as much as 90% of some loans. Before that pledge, the market for these loans had all but dried up, with volume totalling on $7.8M. Since then, volume has rocketed to over $67M.

Loan applications have more than tripled at Small Business Loan Exchange, an online marketplace which matches up borrowers with lenders.

Government Loan Solutions follows the SBA market closely and reports that the delinquency on the most popular SBA loan was 6.18%, the second highest rate in 10 years.

Peer To Peer Lending

In a 4/28/09 WSJ article, Jane Kim reviews the market for peer to peer (P2P) lending. Several companies provide a platform to bring together those who need money and those who have some extra.

A borrower fills out an application, stating their financial information, the amount of money they need to borrow and why they want the money. The P2P company verifies the identity of the borrower and pulls a credit report but doesn’t verify employment. Most of the companies have some minimum FICO score, a commonly used credit grade, that all borrowers must meet. The company then posts the loan request and investors bid on it.

LendingClub.com, PertuityDirect.com and Prosper.com are three companies using this model. At an average interest rate of 13 – 17%, borrowers can often get a better rate than using a traditional credit card.

At LendingClub.com, the delinquency rate was 4 – 5%, about the same as for credit cards. For investors, this is a way to earn more interest on their money. As always, with higher return comes higher risk. The P2P company makes its money by taking a fee on the loans.

Lawyer Layoffs

The legal practice has long been thought to be recession proof.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics “Lawyers held about 761,000 jobs in 2006. Approximately 27 percent of lawyers were self-employed, practicing either as partners in law firms or in solo practices.”

In a 4/14/09 AP article in the WSJ, “more than 3000 lawyers have been laid off in the first three months of 2009.” That figure is low, including only layoffs reported by the top law firms.

The Labor Department reported that, in 2008, the number of unemployed lawyers jumped to a 10 year high of 20,000. “Law students graduating with jobs this spring are being paid to delay their start date.”

Mortgage Mirage

In a 4/14/09 WSJ article, Ellen Schultz recounts several heartbreaking tales of seniors losing their homes. Many lived on meager fixed incomes. Some had paid off their mortgages before unscrupulous mortgage brokers presented them with a “solution” to cope with higher medical expenses, taxes and other living expenses.

The American Bar Association puts out a free booklet of legal advice for families. In Chapter 9
they present some sage cautions regarding contracts:
“Fill in all the blanks! A contract with your original signature but containing blank spaces can be like a blank check if altered unscrupulously.” Some homeowners in the above article were bitten by this scam.

A homeowner taking out a mortgage whose payments escalate at a later date may not examine the contract closely after signing it, when the payments are affordable. A closer scrutiny at a later date may be too late.

“A contract produced by fraud is not automatically void. People who are victimized by fraud have the option of asking a court to declare that contract void, or to reform (rewrite) it. On the other hand, if they went along with the contract for a substantial period of time, they could lose their right to get out of it. This is called ratification, and is based on the idea that they have, by their actions, made it clear that they are able to live with the terms.”

“A contract can be canceled by a court because of fraud when one person knowingly made a material misrepresentation that the other person reasonably relied on and that disadvantaged that other person. A material misrepresentation is an important untruth. In many states, it doesn’t have to be made on purpose to make the contract voidable.”

Even if you know you were lied to, can you prove fraud? “Fraud requires an outright lie, or a substantial failure to state a material fact about an important part of the contract.” “Actual fraud that will invalidate a contract is a lot less common than people think.”

A well worn phrase may be more than just a rule of thumb but a legal precedent. “‘Caveat emptor’–‘let the buyer beware’–is a strict rule placing the risk in a transaction with the buyer.”

If all else fails, you may still have a chance of some legal remedy. “Courts have a powerful weapon called unconscionability . . at their disposal. Unconscionability means that the bargaining process or the contract’s provisions ‘shock the conscience of the court.'” However, “the courts are reluctant to use this weapon, but consumers have a better chance with it than anyone else.”

In handling my elderly parents’ affairs the past two years, I was surprised at the amount of mail solicitation they received that was targeted specifically to retired people. These included a variety of fixed income solutions from annuities to reverse mortgages. Some were legitimate, some smelled fishy. There were investment opportunities of many forms – in real estate, in stocks and bonds, in gold and other commodities. There were many offers for supplemental medical insurance.

The majority played on two real fears that older people have: what if I run out of money, and what if something bad happens? The marketing departments at companies large and small know these fears and cast their mail campaigns like large trawler nets. It’s up to us to be smart little fishies.

Medical Records

In a 4/30/09 WSJ “Currents” feature, Laura Landro examines the state of medical records at the nations hospitals. Only 1.5% of 5000 U.S. hospitals have full electronic records. The most widespread adoption of electronic records are in lab results where 77% of hospitals show full adoption.

In every other category – medication lists, nursing assessments, doctors notes, diagnostic tests, drug allergy and dosages – adoption is less than 50% of hospitals. Approximately a third of hospitals have started to implement digitization of records.

The Federal Government has “earmarked nearly $20B in stimulus funds ..for hospitals to use electronic records by 2011.” Starting in 2015, the Feds will progressively reduce Medicare reimbursement to those hospitals who haven’t made the switch to digital. For a 500 bed hospital, that could mean a $3.2M yearly loss. By 2015, a hospital could get an additional $6M annually for a fully implemented system.

Part of the problem is the cost of implementing this shift to electronic records. “Hospitals say they haven’t been able to afford the cost of the systems, which range from $20M to $100M.” A disadvantage of these systems are that they are proprietary, making it difficult or impossible for one hospital to share information with another.

A solution is an open source software system, “VistA”, already in place at the Veterans Administration (VA). The downside of this system is that it accomplishes its task, recording and coordinating medical information, but does not have a billing or financial function, which must be added on. Software vendors who sell proprietary systems say that the cost of implementing the VA system with billing and financial add-on modules adds up to about the same cost as a fully integrated system from one of the software vendors.

Recent start up companies which specialize in adapting the VistA system for commercial use dispute that. Medsphere implemented a VistA modified system, “OpenVistA”, for Midland Memorial Hospital in Texas for less than $7M. It’s chairman, a former undersecretary at the VA, says that the OpenVistA system “can be installed in one-third of the time and at one-third the cost” of proprietary systems sold by McKesson and Cerner.

What is the benefit for patients? Lower medication errors and deaths, lower rates of bed sores, and a 88% drop in infection rates, Midland discovered after 18 months of using the new system.
I worked in a large NYC hospital for 6 years, in x-ray, medical records and the ER. Reading the handwriting of some doctors is a learned art, and a mis-reading of a word can be critical.

Some doctors and nurses will resist the change but change it must. As the “Boomer” generation matures, the load on the medical system will increase. Hospitals around the country are fighting a number of challenges to stay viable. Non-profit hospitals have long been a public/private partnership. Now is the time for a public investment in hospitals to achieve some long range goals.

Freddie Mac

In a 5/1/09 WSJ article, James Hagerty reported that Freddie Mac, the quasi-governmental mortgage giant, has designated a $1.3M retention bonus for its human resources director, Paul George. This is equal to the bonus that Fannie Mae, the other mortgage giant, is paying its new CEO, Michael Williams. In 2008, Mr. George’s compensation package was $2.3M.

As I noted in an earlier blog, the majority of employees at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have been offered retention bonuses. Presumably, the Federal Housing Finance Administration (FHFA) regulator that oversees these two companies feels that such a retention policy is needed to keep many employees from abandoning ship. Why was Mr. George paid so highly?

“Freddie has had a spotty record of executive recruitment in the recent years,” Hagerty notes. Freddie tried for several years to find a replacement for their CEO and has been looking for a CFO since September of last year.

On April 22nd, David Kellerman (bio), the acting CFO, committed suicide. After working for 16 years at Freddie Mac and rising to the position of corporate controller, Mr. Kellerman became the 4th CFO at Freddie Mac in six years. He earned $1.2M last year and was scheduled for a retention bonus of $850K. Although Congress is conducting an investigation into the company, Mr. Kellerman was not the subject of any inquiry.

Freddie Mac is unable to recruit executive talent. A long time employee commits suicide for no obvious reason, leaving a wife and young daughter behind. The majority of employees are offered retention bonuses to stay with the company. Congress is conducting an investigation into the company’s finances. Taxpayer money continues to be shoveled into this hole.

Transparency

In a 4/29/09 WSJ op-ed, two senior research fellows at George Mason U., Veronique de Rugy and Eileen Norcross, make a case for the Federal Government to adopt a policy of true transparency. This would involve “putting specific details of every government expenditure online”.

Several states already so this, enabling the public to become watchdogs. The authors cite the example of the Missouri Accountability Portal (MAP) which posts all state expenditures. When the National Taxpayer’s Union “discovered more than $2.4 million spent for questionable purposes over the past eight years”, the Republican governor Matt Blunt asked for an audit.

The authors note that the Federal effort at Transparency, Recovery.gov, “only requires states and cities to disclose project-level expenses,” leaving the details out. While the authors want the Federal web site to list detailed expenses, I think that that is more appropriately a state function.

Missouri’s web page (link above) only says that stimulus expenditures are “coming soon” and we can only hope that they will offer the same kind of openness in revealing the details of stimulus spending. A big huzzah for Guv Blunt and the folks at Missouri’s state offices. Let’s encourage our states to follow their example.

In a 50 state survey the non-partisan Institute for Truth in Accounting found that “the same accounting rules are not being used for budget calculations as for financial reporting. Second, Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports (CAFR) are not being issued in time for legislators or governors to review the results meaningfully before planning the next year’s budget.”

States with billion dollar budgets are using the same “cash basis” accounting method that a very small business uses. States disregard liabilities for payments in future years in crafting their current year budgets. “All [legislators] have to focus on is expected cash flow in the coming fiscal year, and they can ignore amounts that will be paid in future years.”

If you reside in California or Illinois, skip this next part. It’s ugly. “California’s budget calculations included no estimate of revenues. Only estimated expenses are noted.” “The Illinois budget .. shows an ever-expanding hole between what was budgeted and what actually transpired during that fiscal year.”

Yay for Vermont, which “is carrying a positive net operating balance, and its budget tracks its CAFR comparatively well. Informed with such information, Vermont taxpayers, legislators, and media have a truer depiction of the state’s financial condition.”