February 11, 2024

by Stephen Stofka

This week’s letter takes a detour toward political polling. NBC News recently posted a story summarizing its latest opinion poll on the overall state of the country and the favorability of presidential candidates. Hart Research Associates regularly conducts this poll for NBC News and asks the question “All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?” One of the reporters at NBC News was kind enough to post the survey data on a central repository, and included in Hart’s survey data were the results of past surveys. A visual depiction of those survey trends contradicted some of my beliefs.

For a decade, the majority of survey respondents regularly answered that they don’t like the direction the country is going. More than half of these surveys were conducted among registered voters only and it doesn’t matter who the President is. The wrong track responses outnumber those who think the country is on the right track. In the graph below I’ve charted a four survey average to smooth the trends in the results. The orange dotted line is the percentage of those who answered wrong track. The blue line indicates those who answered right direction. Less than 10% of respondents have a mixed opinion or are not sure and I did not include those responses in the graph.

Toward the end of Obama’s second term, the percentage of wrong direction responses declined to about 55% before Trump took office in January 2017. From there, the survey responses became increasingly pessimistic. In the final year of Trump’s term negative sentiment shot up in reaction to the pandemic and it kept rising during Biden’s term. The percentage of those with a negative outlook this past month is over 70%, but just a few percent higher than a peak toward the end of Obama’s second term.

Favorability

Given such pessimism about the direction of the country, it is no surprise that a President’s favorability ratings rarely exceed 50%. Survey respondents were routinely asked to rate their feelings toward several public figures. Although both Biden and Trump are subjects of this question for more than a decade, I focused on the responses while both men were in office. The survey has five categories of feelings, from very positive to very negative. I chose just the two favorable categories, very positive and somewhat positive. A chart of the response numbers indicates stark differences in the trend of feelings toward each person. I’ll begin with Joe Biden.

In the first few months of Biden’s term, the sum of positive responses increased from 44% to 50%. Although the Democrats had a political trifecta, their majorities in the House and Senate were slim and prevented passage of controversial legislation like comprehensive immigration reform. The realities of the political process dampened the ardor of progressives who hoped for reforms in immigration, as well as education and child care. The level of moderate feelings, those who answered they were somewhat positive toward Biden, remained anchored at about 20%.

Unlike Biden, the percent of respondents with very positive feelings toward Trump continued to grow during Trump’s term. His disruptive style won him more appeal from ardent supporters than he lost among moderates. Trump’s overall favorability increased slightly during his term from 38% to 40%. Unlike Biden, Trump has a zealous voter base which affords him room to make reckless political postures.

In contrast, Biden’s support is more tempered and results oriented. After an initial positive rating among half of respondents in the early months his very positive ratings in this survey dropped by almost half. The passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022 helped revive his favorability ratings but the bloom faded after the Republicans won a slim majority in the House a few months later. For Democratic voters, policy choices trump party and person loyalty. With little prospect of further legislative gains in a divided Congress, voter enthusiasm waned.

Party loyalty has long been a central characteristic of Republican voters. Like an operator switching a train track, Trump has steered that loyalty to himself as a person. As such his favorability has been more resilient. In November 2018, midway through Trump’s term in office, the Democrats won the House Majority. Just before Christmas, the Republican-led Congress and Trump were unable to pass an Appropriations bill or a Continuing Resolution. The federal government shut down all non-essential services for a month, the longest government shutdown on record. Trump’s favorability ratings should have taken a hit.

Unlike Biden, Trump’s favorability increased in reaction to the shutdown and the swing of power in the House to Democrats. A wing of the Republican Party, fervent and defiant, continue to fight for control of the party and its agenda. Trump is their champion. The party has evolved from a party holding the political center – think of Mitt Romney – to a reactionary movement of None of the Above. No taxes, no immigration, no Obamacare, and no restrictions on guns to name some prominent issues. Nikki Haley, a Republican challenger to Trump, lost the Nevada primary to a candidate on the ballot named None of these candidates.

After the January 6^th riot at the Capitol, fervent support for Trump waned. By June of 2023, survey responses of  very positive had dropped by half to a low of 17 and his total positive sentiment was less than Biden’s numbers. His success in the upcoming election will depend on whether he can re-engage strong sentiment among Republican voters.

These polls demonstrate the strength of Trump’s support in the party. Those in the Republican caucus are afraid of a primary challenge that will cost them their seat. In 2014, the Republican House Majority Leader, Eric Cantor, lost a primary to a Tea Party challenger who received a boost from conservative media. Trump wields a big trumpet and blows it daily. As any parent of a two-year old knows, saying no is easier than making choices that involve compromise. With only a slim majority in the House, loyalty to Trump has made it difficult for Republicans to pass any legislation in the House. Republican congressman Chip Roy from Texas worries that his party will have few accomplishments to attract voters in the upcoming election. However, voters in the coming election will likely cast a rejection vote as in Not Trump or Not Biden. The media will be bombarded with even more negative advertising than usual. Grab a big box of popcorn and settle in.

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Photo by Emily Morter on Unsplash

Keywords: election, survey, opinion poll, ratings, favorability