What’s Really Going On

May 24, 2020

by Steve Stofka

In the latest cable news media surveys, Fox News had 3.7 million prime time viewers, outdistancing cable news/talk outlets CNN and MSNBC (Watson, 2020). Traditional broadcast networks ABC and NBC have 12 million viewers, three times the number of Fox viewers and six times that of MSNBC and CNN (Koblin, 2020). For the 21 million households that have never had cable TV, broadcast news is their only choice.

The Fox News model courts conspiracy theorists, salacious news and rumor. In any country, there is a pool of people eager to believe speculation if it conforms to their sentiments. There are two kinds of conspiracy theorists: those who don’t know any better and those have seen it all and do know better. Conspiracies join the old and the young. 

At first I dismissed speculation that President Johnson would send thousands of young men like myself to their deaths to bolster his political reputation. He secretly taped many phone conversations in the White House. His own words substantiate the claims (Sanger, 2001).

After President Nixon’s landslide victory over Democratic rival George McGovern in 1972, rumors circulated that Nixon had ordered a burglary and wiretapping of  Democratic National Committee headquarters. That’s how Nixon won. Oh, come on. Sore losers. McGovern ran a bad campaign. Within months, those rumors became the subject of public hearings. After Nixon had resigned because he lost party support, some Republicans I spoke with still believed that Watergate was a hoax, Democratic payback for getting trounced in the election. Really? I asked. I was too young to understand, they said.

After yet another trouncing of the Democratic candidate in the 1984 Presidential election, rumors circulated that the Reagan White House was selling weapons to Iran to get money to support the right wing Contra rebels in Nicaragua (Wikipedia, n.d.). The Democrats in Congress had blocked funding for the Contras, but there were any number of ways that the administration could secretly route money to the rebels. Why would White House officials use Iran as a go-between? The country’s head of state had called us the devil. Sore losers, those Democrats. Vicious rumors against the President.

In response to the subsequent Iran-Contra investigation, White House officials destroyed many documents relating to the affair. After several years of denial, Reagan finally acknowledged that there had been such an arrangement but never admitted that he knew about it.

In 2004, rumors circulated that President George Bush concocted evidence so that he could go to war in Iraq and kill Saddam Hussein, the dictator who had tried to kill Bush’s dad in 1993. A ridiculous story meant to take down a President before the election. Democrats were still angry that a conservative Supreme Court had given the Presidency to George Bush in the 2000 election. The sacrifice of so many Iraqi and American lives because of the President’s spite? Come on, gimme a break.

Did Bush go to war with Iraq as payback? Probably not. Did the Bush team manipulate the evidence for going to war? Where are the Weapons of Mass Destruction that Saddam Hussein had hidden? Still hidden.

Why do conspiracy theories persist through the centuries? Many of us like puzzles. There are elements of truth in some conspiracy theories. Are conspiracy  theories true most of the time? No. Is prayer effective most of the time? No. It only has to work a small amount of the time and people pray. Why not? Can’t hurt. If a prayer cost $100, would there be fewer prayers?

Martin Luther protested the selling of indulgences by the Catholic Church to those faithful who were concerned for the health of their everlasting souls.  People who could afford such indulgences were guaranteed a place in heaven. Those who were poor might be condemned to an eternity in hell. He sparked a movement that rejected the intermediation of clergy between each person and God.

Why do people need the intermediation of scientists between each person and the truth?  Scientists can be wrong. That’s the opinion of some Fox News hosts. If scientists are wrong 5% of the time, that is a reason to have doubt, isn’t it? Using the methods of conspiracy theorists, I only need a slim chance of error to disbelieve scientists, and a slim chance of truth to believe a conspiracy theory. Casinos depend on this kind of thinking to make their profits.

Rupert Murdoch is the billionaire head of News Corp, and the owner of Fox News. He is a smart man who understands that the presentation of the news is as important as the news itself. He is a pragmatic man. Anticipating a win by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, Mr. Murdoch was fashioning Fox News into a more moderate news outlet (Folkenflik, 2017).

In reaction to Mr. Trump’s unexpected win, he turned Fox News into a megaphone for the White House and the Conspiracy-Theorist-In-Chief, Donald J. Trump. Fox News is the only network to grow its audience each year. That’s smart. Give people what they want. 

Is Fox News spinning fewer fairy tales that feature the President as the saving hero? Lately, he has attacked the network on Twitter because they are not doing enough to get him and other Republicans elected this year (Ward, 2020). Yes, he wrote that. Will the network give the hero of the fairy tale what he wants?

This post has been corrected. An earlier version incorrectly stated that Disney now owned Fox News. The network was not included in the deal when Disney bought 21st Century Fox earlier this year. Thanks to a reader for noting the error.

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Notes:

Photo by Hans-Peter Gauster on Unsplash

Folkenflik, D. (2017, March 14). Murdoch And Trump, An Alliance Of Mutual Interest. NPR. Retrieved from https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/03/14/520080606/murdoch-and-trump-an-alliance-of-mutual-interest

Koblin, J. (2020, March 24). The Evening News Is Back. N.Y.Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/business/media/coronavirus-evening-news.html

Sanger, D. E. (2001, November 6). New Tapes Indicate Johnson Doubted Attack in Tonkin Gulf. N.Y. Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/06/us/new-tapes-indicate-johnson-doubted-attack-in-tonkin-gulf.html. (See U. Virginia entry for transcriptions.)

U.S. Senate. (2019, December 12). Watergate Leaks Lead to Open Hearings. Retrieved from https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/minute/Watergate_Investigation.htm

U. Virginia. (n.d.). The Presidential Recordings of Lyndon B. Johnson. Retrieved from https://prde.upress.virginia.edu/content/johnson. (Paywall – summaries free).

Ward, M. (2020, May 21). Trump attacks Fox News for ‘doing nothing to help Republicans, and me,’ get reelected. Politico. Retrieved from https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/21/trump-attacks-fox-news-doing-nothing-to-help-republicans-in-november-273612

Watson, A. (2020, May 18). U.S. cable news network viewership 2020. Statista. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/373814/cable-news-network-viewership-usa/

Wikipedia. (2020, May 14). Iran–Contra affair. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–Contra_affair

The Donald and the Washington Post

March 22, 2016

The editorial board and several other employees at the Washington Post recently sat down with Donald Trump.  Here is a transcript of the conversation .

Here are some highlights.   Donald rambles a lot but I think I got the kernel of his responses.  I think my edited version does Donald more justice than the sometimes incoherent responses he actually gave. He really is not ready for prime time. At this point in the campaign his responses to questions about foreign policy, international trade, and other issues mentioned on the campaign trail should be more practiced, not the rambling sentiments that any of us might have in a conversation with a co-worker at a lunch break.

WP = Editorial staff at Washington Post, DT = Donald Trump.  I’ve included some context where I thought it might be needed.

WP: “is there a secretary of state and a secretary of defense in the modern era who you think have done a good job?”

DT: “I think George Shultz [Reagan’s Sec’y State] was very good, I thought he was excellent.”  “I think your last secretary of state [Hillary Clinton] and your current secretary of state [John Kerry] have not done much.”  Trump uses the word “your” to indicate that media institutions are partisan and biased, and including the WP in the liberal media. It indicates that Trump’s essential sense of the world is polarized, a game of warball.  That may be the case in Washington but it mutes Trump’s appeal among independent voters who have less polarized outlooks. Trump offered an example of Kerry’s bad negotiating tactics with Iran: “We should have had our prisoners before the negotiations started.”

In response to a question about promoting values like democracy and freedom around the world,
DT: “I don’t think we should be nation building anymore,” indicating that he is not a neo-con. “We’re sitting probably on a bubble and, you know, it’s a bubble that if it breaks is going to be very nasty. And I just think we have to rebuild our country.”   Trump is not the only person who thinks that extremely low interest rates for seven years have over inflated stock, bond and housing values.  Trump immediately changes the subject and endorses infrastructure spending, aligning himself with economists Paul Krugman, Robert Frank, and others who recommend large Federal stimulus programs to repair infrastructure and employ those with low to modest educational backgrounds.  Trump recalls that we built schools in Iraq, and rebuilt them several times when they got bombed “and yet we can’t build a school in Brooklyn. We have no money for education, because we can’t build in our own country. And at what point do you say hey, we have to take care of ourselves. “

WP: “So what would you do for Baltimore [as an example of a city with troubled inner neighborhoods]”

DT: “I’d create economic zones. I’d create incentives for companies to move in. I’d work on spirit because the spirit is so low… unemployment for black youth in this country, African American youth, is 58-59 percent.”  These are called enterprise zones and have been used with mixed success in the U.S. but particularly in Britain.  See this article

WP: “in general, do you believe there are disparities in law enforcement?”

DT: “I’ve read where there are and I’ve read where there aren’t…I have no opinion on that.  We have to create incentives for people to go back and to reinvigorate the areas and to put people to work…we have lost million and millions of jobs to China and other countries.”   When Trump doesn’t like the topic, law enforcement, he switches subjects to an old refrain, jobs lost to China, and now Mexico. “Mexico is really becoming the new China.”

WP, returning to the topic:  “There is disproportionate incarceration of African Americans vs. whites. Is that something that concerns you?”

DT: “It would concern me. But at the same time it can be solved to a large extent with jobs.”  Some economists and social scientists have championed this idea that people in poor neighborhoods will choose  legal employment if presented with better job prospects.  Over time, residents in the area will become more committed to the neighborhood, to the protection of their property, to law and order.

WP: “Baltimore received a lot of federal aid over the years. What’s different specifically about your approach to these issues from what’s been tried in the past, because a lot of effort has been put in just the direction you just described.”

DT: “I think what’s different is we have a very divided country.”  He goes on about how divided the country is, as if we didn’t already know that.  How does that answer the question about Baltimore? “I thought that President Obama would be a great cheerleader for the country. And it just hasn’t happened. You have to start by giving them hope and giving them spirit and that has not taken place. I actually think I’d be a great cheerleader for the country.”

WP: “What presidential powers and executive actions would you take to open up the libel laws?”

DT: “I’ve had stories written about me … that are so false, that are written with such hatred.  I think libel laws almost don’t exist in this country.  I think that [the media] can do a retraction if they’re wrong. They should at least try to get it right. And if they don’t do a retraction, they should, they should you know have a form of a trial. I don’t want to impede free press, by the way.”

WP: “So in a better world would you be able to sue [the Post]?”

DT: “In a better world I would be able to get a retraction or a correction. Not even a retraction, a correction.”

WP: “Would you require less than [actual] malice for news organizations?”  “Actual malice” is a legal standard, a criteria for liability for libel set up the Supreme Court in 1964.  See below.

DT: “I would make it so that when someone writes incorrectly, yeah, I think I would get a little bit away from malice without having to get too totally away.”  What does that mean?

WP: “How are you defining ‘incorrect?’ It seems like you’re defining it as fairness or your view of fairness rather than accuracy.”

DT: “Fairness is… part of the word. I’ve had stories that are written that are absolutely incorrect. I’ll tell you now and the word ‘intent’, as you know, is an important word, as you know, in libel.”  Trump then gives an example of a news account of a protester at a Trump rally.  The video tape is edited to make Trump supporters look guilty of unprovoked violence.  Trump says these are professional protesters with trained voices that can be heard throughout a large hall in order to disrupt Trump’s speech or a question from the crowd.  Trump says that news media accounts do not potray these incidents accurately.

Through several questions various people from the Post try to get Trump to acknowledge that Trump condones violence.  Trump insists that he supports law and order, not violence.  Trump’s campaign manager notes that there are repeated public service messages before every rally that the audience should not confront protestors and to let security personnel do that.  Trump repeats that some protesters, when interviewed, say they don’t know why they are there, implying that the protesters are paid agitators by those who want to make Trump rallies look violent.  Some protesters simply interrupt his speeches with shouted obscenities.  Out of 20,000 attending a rally, Trump claims that there are just a few protesters and that they are strategically placed at the rally venue.

WP:  “given the Supreme Court rulings on libel — Sullivan v. New York Times — how would you change the law?”  New York Times v. Sullivan is a 1964 decision by the Supreme Court that there must be a malice standard applied before reporting about a public official can be considered libel.  “Actual malice” is a legal concept that the media outlet knew the information was incorrect or should have known, i.e. that they exercised little or no effort to find the correct information.  After this decision, a person claiming libel in the U.S. must prove the untruth of something published.  This departed from centuries of common law precedent.  In Britain, for example, the defendant of a libel claim must prove the truth of the information they published.

DT: “I’d have to get my lawyers in to tell you, but I would loosen them up.”  Although Trump is not specific on this, I’m guessing that he would like some balance between the strict U.S. system and the Briitish system.  U.S. precedent was based on a problem that existed in the southern states during the early 20th century.

WP: “Would that be the standard then? If there is an article that you feel has hatred, or is bad, would that be the basis for libel?”

DT: “The Washington Post never calls me. I never had a call, ‘Why – why did you do this?’ or ‘Why did you do that?’ It’s just, you know, like I’m this horrible human being. And I’m not.”  If a news organization makes no effort to validate information, is that cause for libel?  “I want to make it more fair from the side where I am, because things are said that are libelous, things are said about me that are so egregious and so wrong, and right now according to the libel laws I can do almost nothing about it because I’m a well-known person.”

WP: “can you talk a little bit about what you see as the future of NATO? Should it expand in any way?”

DT: “Ukraine is a country that affects us far less than it affects other countries in NATO, and yet we are doing all of the lifting, [European members of NATO are] not doing anything.”

WP: “Could I ask you about ISIS, speaking of making commitments, because you talked recently about possibly sending 20 or 30,000 troops”

DT: “I said the generals, the military is saying you would need 20- to 30,000 troops, but I didn’t say that I would send them. I would put tremendous pressure on other countries that are over there to use their troops and I’d give them tremendous air … support because we have to get rid of ISIS. I would get other countries to become very much involved.”

WP: “What about China and the South China Sea?”

DT: “We have trade power over China. I don’t think we are going to start World War III over what they did, it affects other countries certainly a lot more than it affects us. I always say we have to be unpredictable. We’re totally predictable.  And predictable is bad. Sitting at a meeting like this and explaining my views and if I do become president, I have these views that are down for the other side to look at, you know. I hate being so open.”

WP:  Asks about Iraq and ISIS

DT: “We then got out [of Iraq] badly, then after we got out, I said, “Keep the oil. If we don’t keep it Iran’s going to get it.” And it turns out Iran and ISIS basically—”  Trump is interrupted but I wonder if he was going to say that Iran and ISIS were conspiring to get Iraq’s oil?  Iran and ISIS are blood enemies.  Iran embodies the Shia sect of Islam, ISIS is Sunni.

WP: “How do you keep it without troops, how do you defend the oil?”

DT: “I would defend the areas with the oil [with U.S. troops].”  Asserting that Iran is out for Iraq’s oil, Trump says, “Iran is taking over Iraq as sure as you’re sitting there. And I’ve been very good on this stuff. My prognostications, my predictions have become, have been very accurate, if you look.”

WP:  Asks Trump about his claim that he could use trade as a diplomatic cudgel against China’s territorial ambitions in the South China sea.  These disputes involve Vietnam, the Phillipines, and Malaysia.

DT: “You start making it tougher [for Chinese exporters]. They’re selling their products to us for… you know, with no tax, no nothing. If you’re a manufacturer, you want to go into China? It’s very hard to get your product in, and if you get it in you have to pay a very big tax.” “I don’t like to tell you what I’d do, because I don’t want to…”

WP: “This theory of unpredictability …there are many people who think that North Korea invaded South Korea precisely because [Secretary of State Dean] Acheson wasn’t clear that we would defend South Korea. So I’m curious, does ambiguity sometimes have dangers?”  Acheson served under Truman from 1949 to 1953.  In 1950, the N. Korean People’s Army crossed the 38th parallel to invade South Korea.

DT: “President Obama, when he left Iraq, gave a specific date – we’re going to be out. I thought that was a terrible thing to do. [The enemy] pulled back, and after we left, all hell broke out, right?”

WP: “What you’re saying [about European NATO members] is very similar to what President Obama said to Jeffrey Goldberg (Atlantic article) in that we have allies that become free riders. Do you have a percent of GDP that they should be spending on defense? Because it’s not that you want to pull the U.S. out [of NATO].”

DT:  “No, I don’t want to pull it out. NATO is costing us a fortune and yes, we’re protecting Europe but we’re spending a lot of money.”  Again, nothing specific in answer to the question.

WP:  “does the United States gain anything by having bases [in Japan and S. Korea]?”  The Post cites an unnamed public source that the U.S. pays 50% of non-personnel costs to maintain the bases.

DT: “I think we were a very powerful, very wealthy country. And we’re a poor country now. We’re a debtor nation.  We’re spending that [money] to protect other countries. We’re not spending it on ourselves. We have armor-plated vehicles that are obsolete. The best ones are given to the enemy.”  Donald relates that the son of one of his friends has served three tours in Iraq and Afghanistan.  “He said the enemy has our equipment – the new version — and we have all the old version, and the enemy has our equipment.  “We send 2,300 Humvees over, all armor-plated. we have wounded warriors, with no legs, with no arms, because they were driving in stuff without the armor. And the enemy has most of the new ones we sent over that they captured. And he said, it’s so discouraging when they see that the enemy has better equipment than we have – and it’s our equipment.”

There was more, including someone at the Post asking about the size of Donald’s hands.