The Stranger Danger

April 19, 2026

By Stephen Stofka

America is built on prejudice and the passionate denial that we are a country built on prejudice. (Source). I wrote that back in 2018. To some degree, the citizens of many nations regard immigrants with some degree of caution, bordering on suspicion. Immigrants present the possibility, the threat, of weakening a country’s cultural, social and political institutions. Each year, most developed countries admit fewer than 1% of their population as permanent residents. From 2013 – 2019, that flow of immigrants was 0.4% in the U.S., far below the 0.8% average of the OECD countries (Source – OECD). The permissive immigration policies of the Biden Administration approximately doubled the immigrant flow and helped Donald Trump win a second term as President (note below). What seemed like an abnormal surge to many Americans was the OECD average of about 0.8% of the U.S. population.

What makes America so unique is both the prejudice and the passionate denial of any prejudice. We convince ourselves that we are a welcoming country and it is true that we have the largest number of foreign-born. But as a percent of our population, we are only average. At 14%, we are tied with the U.K., and 1% higher than France. We are several percent lower than Germany, Spain, Norway, and Belgium (Source – chart). Americans who are antagonistic to immigration insist they welcome immigrants as long as they follow the rules. The target of their animosity is illegal immigration, not legal immigration. However, legal immigration in America presents a high hurdle.

There are several categories of visas with a path to a green card. There are visas which are subject to a numerical cap and those that are not. First, let’s consider the degrees of relation by blood. First degree are children and parents. Second degree are brothers, sisters, grandchildren and grandparents (Source). First degree blood relatives and the spouse of a U.S. citizen are not subject to any numerical cap and have a relatively short waiting time, about twelve to eighteen months.

Second degree family members, like a brother or sister, fall into the family-sponsored preference category “F” and, like employment visas, are subject to a numerical cap. The January 2026 edition of the Visa Bulletin listed only 226,000 “F” slots available for 2026, the same number as in 2025 (Source). The bulletin lists four countries, China, India, Mexico and the Philippines, as over-subscribed, meaning that there are far more applicants than spots available. There is a 7% cap for each country, meaning that only 7% of employment and “F” visas can go to one country like China. The number of applicants far outweighs the number of visas available. What this means is that the line of immigrants waiting for legal admittance to the U.S. continues to grow longer. Family members from over-subscribed countries can wait ten to twenty-five years to have their visa application approved. For “F” applicants from other countries, the wait can be three to seven years.

Once admitted to the U.S., immigrants face other obstacles, one of which is skin color. Centuries of discrimination blocked those with black skin from many housing and job choices to give those with white skin a better chance at success. The prejudice against those with brown skin is more recent and has been amplified since Candidate Trump used the issue of immigration, legal or illegal, in the 2016 campaign to smear those with brown skin or Hispanic surnames. They were “rapists” and “criminals” and “bad hombres” (Source). He made fun of a disabled New York Times reporter by mimicking spastic movements (Source video). By design or luck, Trump tapped into the motherlode of American prejudice to win the White House in 2016.

In 1856, President Millard Fillmore broke with the Whig/Republican Party and ran for re-election as head of the Know-Nothing Party, also known as the American Party (Source). The party viewed the recent surge of immigrants from Ireland and Germany, particularly Catholics, as a threat to Protestant Americans. The party wanted to exclude those not born in the U.S. from voting or being elected to public office, and two decades of residency in the U.S. before being eligible for citizenship (Source). These sentiments and political strategies are similar to those of Trump, his advisor Stephen Miller and media host Steve Bannon. Fillmore’s campaign was unsuccessful, but he won more than 20% of the vote. Douglas Fremont, the Republican candidate, won a third of the vote and together both men captured more than 50% of the vote (Source). Fillmore’s appeal to anti-immigrant sentiments helped throw the race to Democratic candidate James Buchanan and helped strengthen the political power of the southern slave states. Lincoln was wise to avoid anti-immigrant language to help win the favor of immigrant groups. When Lincoln won the presidency in 1860, those states felt emboldened to declare secession from the union, which precipitated the Civil War. Politicians have learned that prejudice can be a powerful political tool of persuasion.

It’s not just skin color, religion and nationality that drives prejudice in America. In 1870, the ratification of the 15th Amendment gave black males the right to vote. Women suffragettes lobbied hard to be included in the Amendment and win their right to vote. It was just too crazy, they were told. Women were too guided by their emotions, and too irrational, particularly during their menses, to be trusted with the vote. They would likely vote as their husband dictated, giving married men two votes. Was that fair? Today, we wince at these sentiments.

In 1920, exactly fifty years later, the ratification of the 19th Amendment gave women the right to vote. The suffragette movement had allied with the Prohibition movement to press each of their causes in a joint effort. The Volstead Act, the implementation of the 18th Amendment prohibiting the sale of intoxicating liquor, was passed a few months before the ratification of the 19th Amendment. They were a package. Had women been granted the right to vote in 1870, the Prohibition movement would have lacked a critical partner to win passage of the Amendment. Without Prohibition, the rise of organized crime might not have occurred.

In America, Jews encountered less discrimination than in Europe but housing, job and social discrimination against those of the Jewish faith were prevalent in the first half of the 20th Century. In the 19th Century, those of the Mormon faith were driven out of Ohio, then Missouri, and Illinois by Protestant sects who regarded Mormons as non-Christians. Mormons escaped across the Great Plains and the Rocky Mountains to settle in a valley in Utah. After World War 2, there was a proposal to settle many European Jewish refugees in Utah, but Mormons nixed the idea. Even those who suffer persecution for their religious beliefs are not immune to bias.

Whenever there is a war, or any act of aggression with another country, Americans single out those nationalities or races for discrimination. In the 19th Century, those of Mexican descent were vilified after the Mexican-American War. Many Germans were denied jobs and housing following the start of WW1. Historical prejudices were resurrected. German soldiers, known as Hessians, had fought with the British against American colonists in the War for Independence. Americans began to see that there was something wrong with the German character. Political cartoons pictured Germans as Huns, a mongrel and violent race of uncivilized people always lusting for battle.

Following Japan’s 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor, U.S. citizens of Japanese descent were forced to sell their homes and businesses at cheap prices, then were moved to internment camps away from the west coast. The 9-11 catastrophe was an attack by multiple suicide squads. Most were from Saudi Arabia, but we did not single out Saudi nationals in the U.S. Unlike the targets of previous war discrimination, Saudis have no unique language. Instead we singled out all Muslims, and all Arab speakers as potential threats.

In 1921, as Vice-President under President Warren Harding, Calvin Coolidge wrote an article in Good Housekeeping magazine in which he argued that “America must be kept American.” He wrote “Biological laws tell us that certain divergent people will not mix or blend” and supported the restriction of immigrants from southern and eastern Europe in the 1924 Immigration Act (Source). Unlike Trump’s vulgar and profane comments a century later, Coolidge employed a more formal language to describe the sentiments of the eugenics movement. As with the Irish and German Catholics in the 19th century, Coolidge also appealed to anti-Catholic feelings toward Italians (Source). Like the Irish, many Italians were Catholic and not to be trusted. To this day, no Italian has been elected President. JFK was the first successful Catholic candidate for the Presidency. During his campaign he had to overcome objections that he would turn to the Pope for advice on national policy. Joe Biden was the second Catholic president and Trump has made it his mission to undo everything Joe Biden did during his four years in the White House.

Most Hispanics are Catholic. Biden was Catholic. Is Trump’s anti-Hispanic and anti-Biden rhetoric simply an evocation of anti-Catholic animosity? Maybe so, maybe not. Trump’s thoughts bounce around in his head like a steel pinball in a pinball machine. I hope to see you next week.

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Photo by Michaela Filipcikova on Unsplash

Note: Permanent residents are those receiving green cards. The surge during the Biden years also included a lot of asylum seekers and those granted temporary protected status. These immigrants doubled the usual immigrant flow.

Wrestlers in a boxing ring

A Deadly Game

April 12, 2026

By Stephen Stofka

Imagine you and your buddy stop off at a grocery store. You wait in the driver’s seat while your buddy goes in to get a few drinks. A few minutes later, he comes running out of the store, hands stuffed in his poncho, but no drinks. As he settles into the passenger seat, you ask where are the drinks. Just go. Get out here, he urges. Both of you have had some minor scuffles with the law so you don’t ask. You go. Later, you are both arrested on suspicion of armed robbery. What neither of you know is that the security camera wasn’t working and the cops have no hard evidence.

You are taken into separate interrogation rooms. The detective and a district attorney enter the room. The detective offers you a deal. Confess to the crime and testify against your buddy and the police will let you off Scot free but your buddy will get ten years in prison. The detective cautions you that they are offering the same deal to your buddy, so you need to make a decision quickly. What if we both confess, you ask. The detective looks at the district attorney. Five years, the district attorney says. Your public defender asks, What if both of them act on their Constitutional right and remain silent? The district attorney reminds you of your record and assures you that they will get you on something that will probably keep you locked up for a year.

What do you do? Your strategy is to minimize your time in jail so the best tactic is to confess, hoping that you are the first to do so. A safe strategy would be to remain silent, take the year in jail, but that only works if your buddy cooperates and also remains silent. Otherwise, you get ten years in prison. So the default tactic is to confess, unless you trust your buddy. The game illustrates how people acting in their own best interest can achieve a worse outcome than cooperating with each other. In the 1950s, Albert Tucker first developed this scenario known as the prisoner’s dilemma as a concrete way to visualize a mathematical payoff matrix (Source). The RAND corporation later used it to illustrate the dilemmas of nuclear annihilation during the cold war between the United States and the USSR.

Under the anarchic system of international relations, there is no cop, no district attorney. Nations honor multi-lateral agreements out of necessity and advantage. Might makes right. While their leaders may give voice to moral principles, those principles are subordinate to the prime directive: survive. Survival was the primary motivation for the thirteen American colonies to join together under a new Constitution in 1787. In Federalist No. 11, Alexander Hamilton warned of the threats from the European nations who considered “the rest of mankind as created for her benefit,” referring to Europe as a unified threat. On the western and northern borders were the French, English and allied Indian nations. To the south were the Spanish and French. “Let the thirteen States, bound together in a strict and indissoluble Union, concur in erecting one great American system, superior to the control of all transatlantic force or influence, and able to dictate the terms of the connection between the old and the new world!” (Source).

In his 2024 election campaign, Donald Trump evoked those Hamiltonian sentiments. Let America stay out of far-flung foreign wars to chase the dream of American empire at the expense of our republic. In a recent interview with former UN Weapons Inspector Scott Ritter, Professor Glenn Diesen noted that America First was a promise to consolidate our national interests, to preserve our republic over the dreams of empire (Source). To join with Israel in an unprovoked attack on Iran prompts the question, what happened to that idea? In short, religious zeal and paranoia.

The Trump administration has been infected with a Crusader passion that makes America look like the gigantic octopus in Jules Verne’s Twenty-thousand Leagues under the Sea” (Source – trivia). In a March 31st New York Times op-ed, Thomas Friedman noted that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth holds “extreme Christian nationalist beliefs” and that “In other words, it’s now our religious warriors against Iran’s” (Source).  Friedman could have included Israel in that coalition of religious warriors.

Because of Israel’s Proportional Representation election system, there are at least a dozen parties in the country. In such a system, common in some form in many European countries, people vote for a party, not a person. Each party that passes a minimum threshold percentage of the vote receives a proportional number of seats in the country’s parliamentary body, the Knesset (Source). Each of the two main parties, Likud and Labor, often forms alliances with minority groups to secure a 61 seat majority out of 120 seats. In cases where the majority advantage is slim, the loyalty of these minority groups is crucial and they are able to drive bargains that are out of proportion to their number in the general population. This means that a party with less than 10% of the vote might have non-negotiable demands that one of the major parties has to meet. When these demands are not met, those crucial votes are lost and Israel’s government collapses. New elections are called.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s party, Likud, often partners with religious extremist groups to secure a majority in Parliament. The primary group is called Shas and represents the Mizrahi/Sephardi ultra-Orthodox Haredi Jews (Source). Like Muslims who believe that Sharia law should be followed instead of secular law, many ultra-Orthodox believe that Jewish religious law should be the law of Israel. Many support the illegal settlements in the West Bank as the return of the ancient kingdom of Judea in Biblical times. They insist on being excluded from mandatory military service, but support military action to achieve a goal. Some believe in the notion of a Greater Israel, a land that stretches from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea, a land governed by Jews for the benefit of the Jewish inhabitants.

If the United States had a proportional system, the Evangelical Christians would probably form at least one minority party and have seats in Congress. In the United States our winner-take-all system favors just two formal parties which incorporate minority coalitions within each party. Like Likud, the Republican Party partners with evangelicals, promising to promote their causes in exchange for their vote (Note below). There is no Evangelical Christian Party but they do influence who serves in government. Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, states strong Christian nationalist views and has two tattoos that evoke the imagery of the Crusades (Source). He believes in religious war as an existential battle between Christianity and Islam. President Donald Trump may have promised “no more foreign wars,” but chose Hegseth, a Medieval Crusader, to steer the country’s war machine.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens the supply of oil, fertilizer and helium used in electronics manufacture. As critical components of the global economy, shortages in those materials may trigger a global recession or worse. Trump wants an exit from this dilemma, but the other prisoner in the dilemma is not Iran. It’s Israel. In this version of the game, Israel and the United States are not in separate rooms but fighters on a tag team in the same boxing ring (Note below). One fighter wants to declare a tie and fight another day, while the other is determined to fight on but can’t survive alone.

And on that cheery analogy, I hope to see you next week.

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Photo by Claudia Raya on Unsplash

Note: The Democratic Party also partners with social justice groups like the ACLU and the NAACP. If the United States had a proportional representation system, these groups that focus on fairness, equality, and protection of human rights might form a Social Justice Party. If the Democratic majority in the House were slim, votes from the Social Justice Party would be critical to maintaining the majority. In our system, the influence is informal but it allows small groups to have a lot of policy leverage.

Note: The political scientist John Mearsheimer sometimes refers to the United States and Israel as a tag team.

America first, Americans last

April 5, 2026

By Stephen Stofka

I keep a thought bin of ideas for articles, then weave some of them together into a single essay. Sometimes finding that thread is difficult. This week, I am going to write on an assortment of these ideas.

The Nonchalant President

In early March, President Trump was nonchalant about rising gas prices. In an interview with the Reuters international news agency, he said “if they rise, they rise” (Source). A lot of Americans who voted for America First didn’t bargain for Americans Last. To elites like Trump, born with a golden spoon, the concerns of everyday Americans are trivial. The only thing Trump wants is their vote. Then comes the betrayal.

Energy as a Weapon

Green energy is locally produced, which can make many countries less dependent on the major producers of oil. I think that is a major reason why President Trump dislikes green energy. The U.S. is the leading producer of oil (Source) and that gives our country a geopolitical edge. The Middle Eastern countries account for a third of global oil production, which gives them a great deal of geopolitical importance despite the fact that their combined population is only 380 million, slightly more than the U.S. alone. International relations is a chess game of power played by individual nation states. The more powerful states, particularly a regional hegemon like the U.S., want to maintain or increase their economic edge over other countries to preserve their dominance.

There are several examples of dominant powers who sabotaged production in other countries to preserve their economic dominance. During the 18th and 19th centuries, Britain imposed punishing tariffs on India’s textile industry so that India could not compete against Britain’s textile industry. Britain’s Navigation Acts mandated that British colonies could only trade using British ships. Britain actively suppressed manufacturing in its colonies, using them only as a source of raw goods which were finished by Britain’s own manufacturing industries. In 2010, China imposed restrictions on the export of rare earths, giving them effective control of key components of industrial production around the world (Source).

Strategic Power

Some of the president’s many miscalculations in the Iran War arise from a lack of appreciation for strategic power. Volume, not cunning or planning, appeals to him, so he engages in “bomb, baby, bomb” and “drill, baby, drill.” More, more, more is not always better. China controls production of most of the world’s rare earths, a key component in many electronics systems, including those of our military systems. When Trump threatened high tariffs on China last year, they threatened to choke off the supply of rare earths and he capitulated. Did he learn his lesson? No. Iran controls 20% of oil production that is shipped through the Straits of Hormuz, a narrow strip of water where Iran can destroy any oil tanker that does not play by Iran’s rules. Did Trump consider that? No. Strategic control of resources can be as powerful as a fleet of bombers.

Declining Leadership

President Trump has the attention span of a tweet and so his staff has to keep his daily security briefings short. His daily updates on the war consist of two-minute compilations of targets bombed (Source). This would not be unexpected in an adolescent. We should expect more from a grown man who is the leader of the most powerful country on the planet. Why have the American people put Biden and Trump, two doddering seniors, in such a position of power?

Sacrifice

More American soldiers have died in the Iran war than Israeli soldiers. It is the young who give up their lives in war, sacrificing many more years of life than the older men who commit them to that fight. The question of reinstituting the draft has come up. The 62-year old comic Rob Schneider thinks we should have a military draft (Source). He was 12 when the draft was ended and is not eligible for the draft at his advanced age so it is easy for him to be rah-rah about the draft. It would take an act of Congress to reinstitute the draft but Trump has shown a persistent ability to bypass the subservient Republican majority in Congress. In 2018, the CDC reported that the military considered 71% of eligible youth physically unfit for military service (Source). They have had trouble filling the ranks of a volunteer military service.

A Policy of War

As I wrote last week, we are “celebrating” 25 years of continual war. John Mearsheimer is a political scientist known for developing the theory of Offensive Realism. This theory focuses on states which are great powers, a state which is dominant in its region of the world. The U.S., China and Russia are examples of great powers. India, Japan the European Union are sometimes included. The theory claims that these great powers must maximize their power relative to other countries to ensure their survival.

The international system is anarchic, meaning that there is no central authority. In such an environment, a great power cannot know the intentions of other countries, so the safest course of action is to become as powerful as possible while preventing rival countries from gaining greater power. This leads states to compete aggressively, expand influence, and exploit opportunities to weaken other countries. This view sees international cooperation as a temporary aligning of opportunities because gains by one state are often at the expense of other states. Conflict is a structural feature of international relations. To demonstrate his point, Mearsheimer reminds us that the U.S. has been at war of some type since the end of World War 2. These include the Cold war with the U.S.S.R, or hot wars like Vietnam, Iraq, the Balkans, and Iran. He referred to the U.S. as a “crusader state” (Source – video).

The Ethics of War

On February 28th, the first day of the war against Iran, U.S. planes bombed a girl’s school, killing about 170 students. The incident happened because military leaders had used out of date maps and failed to double check before setting the targets. Trump was unconcerned about the deaths, absolving the U.S. for any responsibility. At first, he suggested that the Iranians might have been at fault. What I noticed was that signature shrug of his shoulders, indicating his casual dismissal of the deaths. During the 2016 presidential campaign, the Access Hollywood tape recorded Trump saying he was entitled to grope women because he was a star (Source). Does his casual dismissal arise from that sense of entitlement? Trump dislikes rules and institutions. For him, there is only power. He has the same cold-blooded look of nihilism in his eye as the character Malcolm McDowell played in the 1971 movie Clockwork Orange.

Taking Back Power

Congress passes the laws but doesn’t deal with the consequences of their implementation. Perhaps if they did do more administration, they would write better laws or more readily modify those laws which they have written. In the 19th century, Congress took a more active role in administering the programs they enacted. The National Archives contain the records of Congressional committees that decided the pensions of soldiers, an administrative task now done by the Veterans Benefits Administration, a department of Veterans Affairs and part of the Executive branch (Source).

Searching for Truth

In grade school, we are presented with questions where there are many wrong answers but only one right answer. When was the Declaration of Independence? How much is 3 times 4? We get the answer.

In high school, we are presented with questions for which there are several “right” answers. In English class, students might be asked “Why did the character in this story make this decision?” In History class, they might be asked, “What was the primary cause of this war?” In Social Studies class, students might be asked, “Should an individual sacrifice for the greater good?” In a Science class, they might be asked, “How to best design this experiment to test this hypothesis?” We explore the answers.

In college, we study the methods of answering questions. These include the frameworks of investigation, various models and schools of interpretation, the types of evidence and which are more reliable. Lastly, we are asked to formulate our own question and design a method of answering that question, often having to explain why we chose that method. We create the questions.

In the comments to a well written essay on social media, I have noticed that the comments often neglect the reasoning we learned in high school. The writers of these comments seem to be stuck in grade school, believing that there is only one answer to complex social and political problems. Coincidentally, they have that one answer and are willing to share it in their comment! Yes, we are so grateful for your generosity and wisdom. And with that, I hope to see you next week.

Finally

P.S. check out this anime video of a solution to the immigration issue and have a chuckle.

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Photo by Nils Söderman on Unsplash