Tax Brawl

Taxation with representation ain’t so hot either – Gerald Barzan

August 26, 2018

by Steve Stofka

The debate over taxes focuses on the size of national programs, and the Federal taxes collected for those programs. In the past fifty years, state and local government (SLG) taxes have risen to equal the burden of Federal taxes. Despite this rise, SLGs must increase tax revenues to meet obligations and historic growth rates. Republicans control most states and will turn to property and sales tax for the additional revenue.

Fifty years ago, SLG tax receipts were half of all Federal tax receipts, including Social Security. For every tax dollar a worker sent to Washington, he sent fifty cents to his SLG. During the past decade, the SLG tax share has averaged ninety cents.

StatePctFed

In the engine model I first introduced in July, Federal taxes were drained from the economic engine. Because SLGs do not have super powers to create money, their taxes stay within the engine and grease the gears. 72% of SLG taxes are under the category of mandatory business production – they are levied on goods and services received by the taxpayers. These include property, sales and business taxes and a plethora of licensing fees. A family who cannot pay their property taxes loses their home. Sales taxes are mandatory at the time of purchase. When SLG taxes are high, households must work more hours or cut expenses to meet the burden. Unlike Federal taxes, higher SLG taxes can force families to work more and increase GDP (Note#1).

For the past thirty years, SLG taxes have grown 6.6% each year, 1-1/2% above the 5.2% annual growth in spending. In the past ten years, tax receipts have grown at half that rate – 3.2%, barely above the 3.0% growth in spending. SLGs have not saved enough to meet the pension benefits and medical care promised the Boomer generation. SLGs will need to raise revenues, cut spending or both.

23% of total SLG tax receipts are taxes collected on personal income. Taxes on business income make up an additional 5%. Sixty years ago, those personal and business shares of the SLG tax pie were 7% and 3%.

SLGIncPctSLGTotal

Republicans oppose raising taxes, especially income taxes, and they control the legislatures in 32 states. In 26 of those states, they control the governorship as well (Note #2).  Democrats have total control of only six states, one of them California, where income and sales tax make up a whopping 50% of state revenues (Note #3). Many SLGs will cut spending and raise additional revenue through higher property and sales taxes and licensing fees. This lowering of the income tax share will move the mix of income and production taxes to the model of sixty years ago when production taxes were 87% of total SLG tax receipts.

In 2017, single family homeowners averaged $3300 in property taxes. Some states like Colorado have low property taxes averaging only $2000 (Note #4). Personal property taxes have averaged almost 7% annual growth during the past thirty years. Expect 8 – 10% annual growth in the next decade and a population shift to those states which can curb the growth of their taxes. Angry homeowners and taxpayers are sure to kick up a ruckus at City Councils and State Legislatures around the country.

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  1. In 2007, Christina and David Romer analyzed the effect of tax changes on GDP. They found that a 1% exogenous tax increase resulted in a 2 – 3% reduction in real GDP. They classified tax changes implemented for long-term growth as exogenous. Here is a one page summary of the PDF.
  2. One of several sources on Republican dominance of state legislatures. The Hill.
  3. Income and sales tax make up 50% of California’s tax revenues (CA Research Bureau)
  4. Denver Post article on property taxes

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Miscellaneous

NYT had an article on senior scams this week. Because those older than 50 own 70% of deposit balances, they are prime targets of fraud. This was novel: a retired IT pro who thought he was working from home as an employee gave his new “employer” his bank information so that his paycheck could be direct deposited. Common scams: Check fraud is still common, as are overpayments and other excuses to get you to give up your bank account information. Only you should be initiating such a transaction.

Vanguard’s projections of expected returns for various asset classes over the next ten years. Domestic stocks 3.9%. Bonds 3.3%

 

 

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